My research applies causal inference methods (difference-in-differences, event studies, synthetic control, panel data models) to large administrative datasets, most often to evaluate policy in health and social care: a sector that employs roughly an eighth of the UK workforce. Selected work by theme is below; the full list of publications is on ORCID.
Labour and workforce
- Birch S, Tomblin Murphy G, MacKenzie A, Whittaker W, Mason T. Will the need-based planning of health human resources currently undertaken in several countries lead to excess supply and inefficiency? Health Economics, 2017. doi:10.1002/hec.3370
- Birch S, Mason T, Sutton M, Whittaker W. Not enough doctors or not enough needs? Refocusing health workforce planning from providers and services to populations and needs. Journal of Health Services Research and Policy, 2013. doi:10.1177/1355819612473592
- Urwin S, Lau Y-S, Mason T. Investigating the relationship between formal and informal care: an application using panel data for people living together. Health Economics, 2019. doi:10.1002/hec.3887
Incentives and provider behaviour
- Mason T, Whittaker W, Jones A, Sutton M. Did paying drugs misuse treatment providers for outcomes lead to unintended consequences for hospital admissions? Difference-in-differences analysis of a pay-for-performance scheme in England. Addiction, 2021. doi:10.1111/add.15486
- Jones A, Pierce M, Sutton M, Mason T, Millar T. Does paying service providers by results improve recovery outcomes for drug misusers in treatment in England? Addiction, 2018. doi:10.1111/add.13960
- Mason T, Sutton M, Whittaker W, et al. The impact of paying treatment providers for outcomes: difference-in-differences analysis of the 'payment by results for drugs recovery' pilot. Addiction, 2015. doi:10.1111/add.12920 (Shortlisted, EMCDDA Scientific Committee award, 2016.)
- Mason T, Lau Y-S, Sutton M. Is the distribution of care quality provided under pay-for-performance equitable? Evidence from the Advancing Quality programme in England. International Journal for Equity in Health, 2016. doi:10.1186/s12939-016-0434-5
Regional policy and resource allocation
- CoWBELLs (2025-2028): a £1.6m NIHR evaluation of community wealth building in Scotland, comparing Scottish localities with English comparators; I lead the quantitative (synthetic control) work package. NIHR award NIHR169449
- Jones A, Hayhurst K, Whittaker W, Mason T, Sutton M. Development of a resource allocation formula for substance misuse treatment services. Journal of Public Health, 2018. doi:10.1093/pubmed/fdx160
- Whittaker W, Hayhurst K, Jones A, Mason T, Sutton M. Resource Allocation for Local Public Health. Report for the Department of Health, 2015. Report (PDF)
Population ageing, morbidity and health care labour supply
How generational change in morbidity alters the need for care, and what that implies for planning the health care workforce.
- Mason T, Sutton M, Whittaker W, Birch S. Exploring the limitations of age-based models for health care planning. Social Science & Medicine, 2015. doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2015.03.005
Applied machine learning
- Gordon J, Norman M, Hurst M, Mason T, et al. Using machine learning to predict anticoagulation control in atrial fibrillation: a UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink study. Informatics in Medicine Unlocked, 2021. doi:10.1016/j.imu.2021.100688
Inequalities
- Chatzi G, Whittaker W, Chandola T, Mason T, et al. Could diabetes prevention programmes result in the widening of sociodemographic inequalities in type 2 diabetes? Comparison of survey and administrative data for England. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 2023. doi:10.1136/jech-2022-219654
Work in progress
- Community wealth building and local economic and health outcomes (CoWBELLs work package 3).
- Primary care nurse continuity and secondary prevention in long-term conditions (NIHR Three Research Schools; CPRD).
- The quantitative evidence used by local public health decision makers in commissioning (NIHR Research Support Service Methodology Fund).
Research funding
Current roles on four NIHR awards totalling £12.8m (2025-2026), including co-lead of the drug and alcohol theme of the £11m NIHR Mental Health Research Group and lead of the CoWBELLs synthetic control work package. Previously co-applicant or lead on funded research totalling over £1.2m (funders: MRC, Department of Health, NHS England, Bristol-Myers Squibb), and named researcher on more than ten funded projects at Manchester (2010-2018).